Динамика трудовых ресурсов

Названные два фактора в своей совокупности способны внести значительные изменения в динамику трудовых ресурсов, а при определенных условиях — привести к абсолютному снижению численности трудящихся, занятых в народном хозяйстве. Конечно, недостаточные масштабы экономии труда могут замедлить осуществление таких сдвигов, но социальные и экономические потери будут в таком случае не меньше, чем результаты повышенной занятости населения.

Чтобы представить масштабы возможных сдвигов, приведем условный расчет. Если в течение 20 лет средняя продолжительность образования (с отрывом от производства) увеличится на 2 года, всем женщинам будет предоставлена возможность не работать в течение 3 лет после рождения ребенка и еще 5 лет работать не более Д календарного года, то это приведет к уменьшению потенциальной занятости в СССР на 20—25 млн. человек, что составляет 15—20 % занятых сегодня.

Говоря об особенностях воспроизводства трудовых ресурсов, следует отметить их зависимость от изменений в отраслевой структуре занятых. Помимо других факторов, на эту структуру влияют различия в самом характере труда в разных отраслях, разные объективные возможности его механизации, а значит, повышения производительности труда.

На современной стадии развития производительных сил возможности экономии живого труда пока еще выше там, где этот труд поддается механизации, т. е. сводится к относительно однородным механическим операциям и замещается машинами. Механизация облегчается также вещественным характером производства, когда момент потребления отделен во времени от момента производства, что позволяет в решающей мере подчинять режим производства технологическому фактору. К таким видам труда относятся в первую очередь добыча полезных ископаемых, обработка материалов, транспортировка грузов, механические процессы в сельском хозяйстве и т. п.

Что же касается сферы материального обслуживания населения (торговля, общественное питание, жилищно-коммунальное хозяйство, в определенной мере пассажирский транспорт и сфера непроизводственной информации), здравоохранения и образования, не говоря уже о сфере создания духовных ценностей, то возможности механизации труда здесь значительно уже. Объясняется это многооперационностью и многофункциональностью труда в этих отраслях, совпадением (в основном) момента производства и потребления, непосредственной близостью к человеку, его индивидуальным запросам. Здесь действует общая тенденция —по мере «приближения» к человеку труд по его обслуживанию усложняется.

 

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