Научная информация

Научная информация отражает структуру и уровень познания объективного мира. Поэтому прогнозы развития науки могут разрабатываться лишь в терминах, системе понятий предметов соответствующих наук. Однако с точки зрения научно-технического прогнозирования этого недостаточно; необходим переход от научной информации к характеристикам (параметрам) технических систем подобно разработанной Г. С. Альтшуллером матрице «физика — техника» .

Соответствие техники практическим нуждам выражается в ее характеристиках (технических параметрах), способных давать определенный полезный эффект; в процессе производства комбинации таких эффектов обеспечивают создание конкретных потребительных стоимостей. Для каждого вида техники (средства производства) существует свой набор параметров в их определенном сочетании. Когда речь идет о технических системах, т. е. о средствах производства, взаимодействующих в рамках единых технологических процессов, то сочетания таких параметров касаются не только отдельных машин, установок и т. п., но и их систем; образуются связи между техническими характеристиками элементов технологического процесса. В обоих случаях— и относительно отдельного средства производства, и относительно более или менее сложных технических систем— задача научно-технического прогнозирования состоит в прогнозе основных технических характеристик (параметров) и их сочетаний. Здесь необходимы отбор основных параметров (например, скорость и грузоподъемность воздушного транспорта, быстродействие и объем памяти ЭВМ и т. д.), прогноз технических возможностей улучшения каждого из них, оценка сочетаний параметров и меры их технической целесообразности.

Как уже отмечалось, выигрыш в какой-либо одной характеристике может происходить за счет относительного проигрыша в другой; но поскольку отдельные полезные эффекты находятся между собой в отношениях взаимного дополнения и замещения, то самая сложная сторона технического прогнозирования состоит в установлении и предвидении взаимосвязей характеристик отдельных средств производства и целых технических систем. При этом совершенствование технических характеристик (параметров) может носить эволюционный характер в рамках данной технологии, а может означать качественные сдвиги, переход к новым техническим решениям, к новым поколениям машин, орудий труда, новым видам материалов.

 

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