Основа разработки комплексных прогнозов

Основой разработки комплексных научно-технических прогнозов является система частных прогнозов, охватывающая отдельные технологические процессы, методы производства конкретных видов продукции и услуг. Каждый технологический процесс и соответствующая ему система средств производства характеризуется, как уже отмечалось, набором технических параметров, лежащих в основе создаваемых полезных эффектов, а также системой техникоэкономических показателей.

Комплексные научно-технические прогнозы разрабатываются по совокупностям взаимосвязанных отраслей и производств (народнохозяйственным производственным комплексам — машиностроительному, строительному, конструкционных материалов, агропромышленному, топливноэнергетическому, инфраструктурному, производству предметов потребления и услуг), из которых складывается уже комплексный, в масштабах всего народного хозяйства, научно-технический прогноз. Главная задача таких комплексных прогнозов — определение возможной последовательности и масштабов распространения нововведений по отраслям народного хозяйства, основных направлений его технического перевооружения.

Если в частных научно-технических прогнозах речь идет о совершенствовании отдельных технологических процессов, то в комплексных прогнозах — о возможных масштабах и удельном весе использования этих процессов, традиционных и новых, об их взаимодействии. Именно в комплексных прогнозах могут быть учтены народнохозяйственные требования и результаты внедрения достижений науки и техники. Основным звеном, связывающим научно-технические и социально-экономические аспекты развития народного хозяйства, являются здесь масштабы использования отдельных технологических процессов, сдвиги в технологической структуре производства под воздействием распространения нововведений и движения их жизненных циклов От этого зависят не только абсолютные, но и удельные показатели экономического эффекта, т. е. не только абсолютная экономия ресурсов в расчете на данный масштаб производства (или масштаб использования данной технологии), но и показатели выхода полезного эффекта на единицу затрат. На основе частных научно-технических прогнозов могут быть определены лишь зависимости удельных показателей от масштабов использования новых технических решений, а оценка реально возможных абсолютных и удельных показателей эффективности может быть получена лишь в рамках комплексных научно-технических прогнозов.

 

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