Прогресс в науке, технике, образовании

Прогресс в науке, технике, образовании, управлении вел к непрерывному повышению доли затрат интеллектуального труда по отношению к физическому; изменение этого соотношения было одним из главных факторов развития производительных сил, роста производительности труда в сфере материального производства. Поэтому по мере повышения уровня экономического развития во всех странах увеличивалась доля «белых воротничков»; в начале XX в. эта доля составляла в целом в экономике индустриально развитых стран уже 7—8 %, а через 50— 60 лет —20—30%, причем в США —около 50% .

С той же скоростью этот процесс продолжаться не может. Поэтому дальнейшее развитие материального производства па основе научно-технического прогресса и экономия физического труда в этой сфере могут носить устойчивый характер только в том случае, если они опираются на повышение производительности интеллектуального труда, его экономию. Электронная техника делает это возможным и тем самым вносит перелом в сложившиеся тенденции — процесс экономии охватывает все сферы труда. Здесь возникают новые проблемы, связанные с повышением до огромных масштабов затрат труда в производстве и обслуживании ЭВМ, и особенно в создании необходимого математического обеспечения. Столь высокая цена экономии интеллектуального и физического труда может быть снижена за счет моделирования более высоких— логических уровней мышления.

В США совокупные затраты на обработку информации удваиваются каждые 5 лет и в 1985 г. превысили 160 млрд. долл. (свыше 8 % валового национального продукта), т. е. были почти в 4 раза больше, чем стоимость продукции автомобильной промышленности [114, с. 32]. Объясняется такой ускоренный рост тем, что, несмотря на быстрый прогресс в вычислительной технике — за последние 15 лет стоимость единицы мощности ЭВМ снижалась на 35 % в год, производительность труда программистов росла довольно медленно — менее 10% в год. Такие тенденции еще раз показывают, что эффективная автоматизация должна быть комплексной, охватывать также и интеллектуальный труд, в том числе его вновь возникающие разновидности.

Отсутствие в обработке информации избирательности, логических и эвристических процедур означало бы довольно быстрое исчерпание вычислительных возможностей ЭВМ, поскольку существует верхняя граница количества информации, которую может пропустить через себя ЭВМ в секунду на каждый грамм массы (в каждом грамме массы — конечное число электронов, и движутся они с конечной скоростью), а эта масса ограничена чисто физическими условиями существования человечества. Поэтому если ЭВМ первых четырех поколений выполняли работы числового (арифметического) характера, то машины пятого поколения будут, вероятно, уже не только электронновычислительными, но и электроннологическими (ЭЛМ); они будут делать заключения, обосновывать, строить гипотезы, учиться. В эволюции от ЭВМ к ЭЛМ, как заявил один из создателей современной вычислительной техники, находит свое выражение понимание того, что большинство мировых проблем не нуждается в математических решениях.

 

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