Распространение нововведений

Таким образом, любой полный научно-технический прогноз должен охватывать распространение нововведений, первичное их внедрение на основе уже полученных; и апробированных результатов и развитие самой науки, требующей значительных затрат при более или менее высокой неопределенности ее практических результатов. По ряду направлений может оказаться, что предвидимое научно-техническое (развитие в решающей мере определяется распространением и. ли первичным внедрением уже имеющихся нововведений; в этих случаях прогнозы имеют преимущественно производственно-технический характер и связаны в первую очередь с инвестиционной политикой. По другим направлениям прогноз может носить преимущественно технический характер, так как связан с поиском новых технических решений, а некоторые прогнозы пмогут быть в основном научно-техническими или научными, поскольку там главное — практическая апробация и теоретическое; развитие новых научных знаний.

Очевидно, что методы прогнозирования и состав участников должны варьироваться в зависимости от характера научно-технических прогнозов. В прогнозах распространения нововведений должны преобладать точные (балансовые и эконометрические) количественные методы, решающая роль в их разработке принадлежит проектировщикам, технологам, экономистам. Прогнозы первичного внедрения нововведений должны иметь более вероятностный, частично экспертный характер и составляться с участием научных работников, ведущих исследования прикладного характера. Что касается прогноза направлений развития науки, то здесь методы прогнозирования могут быть только экспертными и их надежность целиком зависит от личной компетентности ученых.

Взаимосвязь научного, технического и экономического аспектов прогнозирования требует трансформации научных знаний (информации) в характеристики, параметры технических систем, а последних —в технико-экономические и экономические показатели. Здесь мы опять возвращаемся к согласованию трех размерностей и соответствующих им структур научно-технического прогресса — научной, технической и экономической (производственной). научно-техническое прогнозирование должно осуществляться в каждой из названных размерностей и одновременно обеспечивать их согласование — переход от системы координат науки к координатам техники, а затем — экономики. Если это требование не соблюдается, то происходит смешение аспектов, исчезают относительная самостоятельность и взаимная обусловленность науки, техники и экономики.

 

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