Специфика прогнозирования

В силу самой специфики прогнозирования далеко не всегда могут быть согласованы социально-экономические и научно-технические аспекты развития. В комплексных научно-технических прогнозах такое согласование возможно лишь в меру интенсивности использования структурного фактора, т. е. поиска технологической структуры производства, в наибольшей степени соответствующей социально-экономическим требованиям; в то же время составные элементы такого поиска остаются неизменными, так как в его основе лежат комбинации автономно разработанных частных научно-технических прогнозов. Эта автономность— следствие не столько форм организации разработки прогнозов, сколько тенденций и имеющихся заделов, которые сложились в данном направлении, звене научно-технического прогресса в предшествующий период. Эти тенденции и заделы несут на себе отпечаток прошлых социально-экономических условий. Если же эти условия изменились, то нет никаких оснований искать решение новых народнохозяйственных проблем на базе сложившихся тенденций развития науки и техники.

Поэтому задачей комплексных научно-технических прогнозов является не только обоснование путей и вариантов развития народного хозяйства, позволяющих согласовать его научно-технический и социальноэкономический аспекты, но и выявление «точек разрыва», в которых сбалансированность развития не может быть достигнута при сохранении сложившихся тенденций. Здесь возникает необходимость поиска принципиально новых технических решений, развития новых направлений научных исследований. В рамках прогноза такие проблемы не могут быть решены; это уже задача планирования, в том числе основание для разработки целевых научно-технических программ.

Необходимость поиска принципиально новых научных идей и технических решений означает также, что на этапе прогнозирования, особенно долгосрочного, нет объективных оснований для получения полностью сбалансированных вариантов развития народного хозяйства; такая сбалансированность, не имеющая под собой адекватной научно-технической базы, а значит, не обеспеченная и экономически, может иметь лишь формальноравновесный, по существу фиктивный, характерВыявление узлов несбалансированности является лишь началом плановой работы, в результате которой будет обеспечена концентрация имеющихся ресурсов на избранных приоритетных направлениях, и в конечном счете «точки разрыва» должны быть превращены в «точки роста».

 

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