Типы научно-технического прогноза

В зависимости от типа научно-технического прогноза в нем могут преобладать научные, технические, технико-экономические или экономические аспекты, и он не обязательно должен охватывать все звенья цикла «наука — производство» и жизненного цикла нововведений. Поэтому трудно говорить о какой-то стандартной структуре научно-технического прогноза, который в своих крайних проявлениях может быть чисто научным или чисто техническим; можно говорить лишь об общих подходах, относящихся к научно-техническому прогнозированию в целом. Наиболее важными являются здесь, во-первых, развертывание научно-технического прогноза во времени и, во-вторых, взаимосвязь научного, технического и экономического аспектов прогнозирования.

Развертывание научно-технического прогноза во времени означает выявление и оценку:

основных научно-технических сдвиг в данной области за последние десятилетия; это позволяет определить реальные тенденции, преемственность будущего развития по отношению к прошлому и настоящему, установить качественные переломы, сравнить прошлые представления с действительным научно-техническим развитием;

проблем, технически уже решенных до наступления прогнозируемого периода, но широкое внедрение которых еще только начинается;

проблем, решенных в научном плане в допрогнозный период, но еще не прошедших стадию технической разработки, ожидаемой в прогнозируемый период;

возможных результатов ведущихся научных исследований, ожидаемых в течение прогнозируемого периода и требующих крупных затрат уже в ближайшее время;

новых возможных направлений развития науки, результаты которых остаются в высокой степени неопределенными на все обозримое будущее, но требуют уже сегодня значительных затрат.

 

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