Устранение неопределенности

Следует подчеркнуть, что невозможно целиком устранить неопределенность в отдельных звеньях научно-технического прогресса в силу отмеченных выше причин. Ее можно снизить за счет резервов, позволяющих компенсировать отклонения отожидаемых результатов и воздействие факторов риска. Выигрыш от выделения дополнительных затрат на образование таких резервов очевиден, так как вся система приобретает большую устойчивость. И все же главный источник усиления детерминированности — в сознательном учете стохастической природы научно-технического прогресса, что предполагает корректировку принимаемых научных и технических решений после реализации каждой стадии цикла «наука — производство».

Если путь от науки до производства разбить на этапы теоретической разработки, прикладных научно-исследовательских работ целевого характера, принятия технических решений, опытно-конструкторских разработок и, наконец, создания, испытания опытного образца и подготовки его массового производства, то, по имеющимся оценкам, на 1 руб. затрат сферы НИОКР, воплотившихся в конечный результат (непосредственно давших отдачу), приходится в этой сфере от 2 до 30 руб. затрат промежуточного характера. Ошибки в оценке стоимости новых образцов техники колеблются при небольших научно-технических сдвигах от 1,1 до 2 раз, а при значительных — до 4 раз (в сторону преуменьшения), а ошибки в планировании продолжительности всего цикла создания новой техники — от 2 до 5 лет (также в меньшую сторону) .

Поскольку неопределенность убывает при переходе от одного звена цикла «наука — производство» к другому , то необходимо принимать решения и распределять ресурсы не по всему циклу одновременно, а последовательно после прохождения каждого этапа. Целесообразно также на каждом этапе исследовать, разрабатывать максимально возможное число технических и проектно-конструкторских вариантов с целью нахождения наиболее эффективного; дополнительные затраты на этих промежуточных этапах с избытком компенсируются уровнем и устойчивостью конечного эффекта.

 

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