Запоминающее устройство компьютера

Сколько же все-таки пройдет времени до возникновения такой ситуации? Ответ на этот вопрос получен сравнительно давно, правда совершенно в другом контексте. Представим себе, что запоминающее устройство компьютера хранит только 365 слов. Допустим также, что эти слова помечены, каждое определенным днем года, от 1 января до 31 декабря. Чтобы промоделировать случайное возникновение ошибок в этом запоминающем устройстве, проведем следующий эксперимент. Опросим некоторое количество людей и «засечем» ошибки согласно датам рождения опрашиваемых. Если, например, вы встречаете человека, день рождения которого приходится на 28 апреля, то вы засекаете ошибку в слове, помеченном в памяти этой датой. Сбой произойдет, как только лень рождения кого-либо из опрашиваемых вновь окажется 28 апреля. Специалисты в области теории вероятностей показали, что в среднем, для того чтобы встретить двух людей с одним и тем же днем рождения, потребуется опросить

24,6   человека. Этот довольно неожиданный факт известен из теории вероятностей. Отсюда следует, что в среднем запоминающее устройство, хранящее 365 слов, выдержит 24,6 ошибки, прежде чем произойдет сбой, который

уже нельзя будет устранить при помощи корректирующего кода.

Однако полученное нами значение соответствует случаю, когда возможны лишь 365 различных дней рождения. Математики уже давно вычислили соответствующие числа для произвольного количества возможных дней рождения. Общее правило вычисления этих чисел выражается в виде довольно громоздкого уравнения. И все же, находясь на планете с N днями в году, вы сможете довольно точно оценить количество существ, которое вам в среднем потребуется опросить, прежде чем встретятся два существа с одним и тем же днем рождения, вычислив квадратный корень из величины ((тг/2) х /V].

 

 

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